220   
FXUS66 KEKA 062314  
AFDEKA  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA  
315 PM PST TUE JAN 6 2009  
   
SYNOPSIS  
A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE   
INLAND TONIGHT. A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE   
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A COLD   
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC   
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...SUPPORTING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH   
THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK.    
   
  
   
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY  
A WEAK WARM FRONT OVER THE   
AREA HAS PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REDWOOD COAST.   
PRECIP TOTALS THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM 0.12 TO 0.20 AT   
HONEYDEW...ORICK AND CEC...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FURTHER   
INLAND. GUIDANCE INDICATES A DIMINISHING TREND IN PRECIP TONIGHT AS   
THE WARM FRONT DEPARTS THE CWA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH OVERRUNNING   
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A BREAK FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. A   
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY AS   
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE.   
  
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD   
RAINFALL INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06 UTC...WITH   
THE HEALTHIEST DOSE OF QPF IN THE 12-18 UTC TIME FRAME THURSDAY.   
AMSU TPW SHOWS A DECENT PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS   
THE PACIFIC...ORIGINATING SOUTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. CURRENT   
MODEL FORECASTS DEPICT A MODERATE PRECIP EVENT...BUT IF A   
SUBTROPICAL TAP GETS INVOLVED THE QPF MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED   
UPWARDS. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT THE SMITH AND LOWER KLAMATH   
BASINS WILL RECEIVE NEAR 1.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH 0.50 OVER   
THE EEL AND 0.25 FOR THE UPPER PORTION OF THE RUSSIAN RIVER   
BASIN.      
  
AS FOR SNOWFALL ISSUES...THE BULK OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE   
COLD AIR ARRIVES...WITH SNOW LEVEL TO REMAIN NEAR 6000 FT OR ABOVE   
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN QUICKLY AFTER   
18 UTC...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR 4500 FT THURSDAY   
AFTERNOON AND TO 3500 FT IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER BY THIS TIME THE   
QPF VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOW ENOUGH THAT SNOWFALL WILL BE   
LIMITED TO AN INCH OR TWO. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO   
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...USHERING IN THE START OF A WARMING   
AND DRYING TREND THAT WILL LIKELY EXTEND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. CC   
   
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY  
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING   
SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDING DOME OF  
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE GOOD WARMING AND DRYING...PRIMARILY   
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SLOPES AND VALLEYS WITH SOUTH AND   
EAST FACING EXPOSURE. NORTH AND WEST FACING VALLEYS WITH POOR   
EXPOSURE TO THE LOW WINTER SUN ANGLE WILL LIKELY SEE FOG AND LOW   
CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH THE BETTER PORTION OF THE DAY AS THE OFFSHORE   
FLOW WEAKENS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN MON-TUE. DJB      
  
  
   
AVIATION  
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THE COASTAL SITES AS   
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MODELS INDICATE THAT   
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW   
HOURS. THE TIMING IS A BIT OF AN ISSUE BECAUSE THE CLOUDS HAVE   
REMAINED A TAD LOWER FOR A LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THIS   
TREND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY   
SHOWS OVERCAST SKIES OFF THE COAST. INLAND SITES WILL REMAIN VFR   
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN   
THE VALLEYS. MS   
  
  
   
MARINE  
NORTHWEST SWELL NEAR 10 TO 12 FT AT ABOUT 13 SECONDS   
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE   
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS   
AND SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS MAY BE INCLUDED FOR THE  
NORTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO   
INCLUDE IT IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL   
DECREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MS  
  
          
   
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS.  
  
  
  
  
  
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA  
 
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