792   
FXUS66 KLOX 062352 AAA  
AFDLOX  
  
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA  
352 PM PST TUE JAN 6 2009  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION SECTION  
  
   
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)  
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME   
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES PREVAILED OVER THE DISTRICT INTO EARLY THIS   
AFTERNOON. LOCAL GUSTY NW TO N WINDS CONTINUED IN THE MOUNTAINS   
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR OF NW L.A. COUNTY. TEMPS THIS   
AFTERNOON CONTINUED TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN MOST   
AREAS.  
  
SOME UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO SRN CA TONIGHT AND   
WED. A FAST MOVING UPPER TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH   
THE DISTRICT FROM THE NW ON THU THEN PUSH THRU THE REGION THU   
EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO   
SOUTHERN CA FOR FRI. THE GFS WAS A BIT SHARPER AND SLOWER WITH THE   
FIRST UPPER TROF THAN THE WRF. EVEN SO...IT LOOKS LIKE IN EITHER   
SCENARIO MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.   
EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES   
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS   
THE DISTRICT DURING THE PERIOD. SOME MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL BE   
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...AND SOME   
CLOUDINESS FROM THE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE MAINLY   
INTO SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND THE N MOUNTAIN SLOPES LATE THU AND THU   
EVENING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE   
DISTRICT FOR THE MOST PART THRU FRI. NW TO N WINDS BEHIND THE   
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THU EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE   
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FLOW WILL   
QUICKLY TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE BY LATE FRI BELOW AND THRU   
THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. WINDS MAY APPROACH   
ADVISORY LEVELS IN THIS AREA BY SUNSET FRI. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO   
TURN MILDER ON WED AND BE NEAR TO PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE   
NORMAL...THEN COOL BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THU AND FRI.  
   
LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-TUE)  
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE   
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TODAY. THE GFS IS BUILDING A LARGE AND   
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE E PAC FRI NIGHT THRU   
MON...THEN THE UPPER HI DRIFTS INTO NRN CA FOR TUE. AT THE SAME TIME   
AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER EXTREME SW ARIZONA SAT THEN MOVES INTO   
NWRN MEX BY SUN. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER   
TROF INTO SAT WITH THE LARGE E PAC UPPER HI CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL   
AND NRN CA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS   
SCENARIO WILL GIVE THE DISTRICT MILD TEMPS WITH VERY WINDY   
CONDITIONS FOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF   
WOULD GIVE THE REGION VERY WARM TEMPS AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS   
FOR VTU/L.A. COUNTIES. FOR NOW WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION   
AS IT IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE 18Z WRF WHEN COMPARED WITH THE 12Z   
ECMWF. IT LOOKS SUPPORT FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST MAINLY   
OVER VTU/L.A. COUNTIES FRI NIGHT THRU SUN. THE STRONGEST WINDS   
SHOULD BE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS AND BELOW AND THROUGH THE NE-SW   
ORIENTED PASSES AND CANYONS. AT THIS TIME THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR   
HIGH WIND WARNING LEVEL WINDS IN MANY AREAS...EVEN AT LOWER   
ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT CAN   
BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE DISTRICT OVER THE WEEKEND...CREATING   
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN THE LIVE   
FUEL MOISTURES. WITH GOOD OFFSHORE GRADIENTS CONTINUING INTO EARLY   
NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE WINDY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST OVER PORTIONS   
OF VTU/L.A. COUNTIES MON THRU TUE AS WELL. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO   
BECOME A BIT WARMER DURING THE PERIOD...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS BY   
SUN AND CONTINUING THRU TUE.  
  
  
   
AVIATION  
06/2352Z.   
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR IFR TO   
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KPRB AND A CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES   
DEVELOPING AT KLAX AND KLGB TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT   
KPRB COULD SEE LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z TUESDAY   
MORNING.  
  
KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR   
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z. NO   
WIND ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.  
  
KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH NO   
WIND ISSUES.  
  
  
   
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).  
  
  
  
  
  
PUBLIC...SIRARD  
AVIATION...HALL  
  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES  
 
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